? HOW TO USE KNOCK ON
Start with one question. Follow one chain of effects. Go deeper only when something makes you curious.
That is the guided experience. The full Model Lab adds composition, inspection, evidence, and stress testing.
01 THE GUIDED PATH
You can complete a meaningful run without stacking shocks, changing pathway strength, or opening the calibration registry.
Begin with one directional preset: the Fed policy rate rises, inflation rises, or the economy weakens. The economy-weakens preset combines slower growth with wider credit spreads, and both inputs are shown. On mobile, each completed choice collapses into a short summary.
First visit? Use one preset and leave its values unchanged.The environment describes the surrounding economy. The guided page offers three plain-language contexts. The Model Lab exposes all six formal regimes, including financial crisis, stagflation, and productivity boom.
Change the regime after your first run to see what can reverse.Actual is what happened. Expected is what markets anticipated. Surprise is the difference. The guided page offers three simple surprise levels; the Model Lab exposes exact values. Fast-moving markets care especially about the surprise.
If actual and expected match, the immediate surprise is zero.Now, a few months, and a year later reveal progressively slower pathways. The Model Lab adds days and two-plus-year precision for deeper comparisons.
An absent effect may simply not have arrived yet.The guided chain ranks the three largest visible effects. Choose a card to move directly to its explanation, then use Back to results to compare another. Direction, magnitude, timing, and confidence belong together.
The persistent scenario bar shows your choices and confirms when results update.Selecting a result opens its competing pressures, plausible range, confidence, and reversal conditions. “Why could this be wrong?” is part of the answer, not a disclaimer after it.
This is the natural stopping point for a normal visit.02 A WORKED EXAMPLE
03 READ THE OUTPUT
Use it to see where pressure travels. Use the selected result and explanation to decide what that route means.
04 ACTUAL VS. EXPECTED
The economy and the market do not process the same event on the same clock.
A move can be large but unsurprising. A smaller move can matter more when it contradicts expectations. Slower economic channels still respond to the actual change.
05 CHOOSE YOUR DEPTH
Use the guided main page: pick a preset, choose an environment and surprise level, move the time horizon, and open one of the three strongest results.
Switch environments or surprise levels on the guided page. Search Education by term or synonym, or filter by category. Open the Model Lab when you are ready to add a second force or compare all six formal regimes.
Use the persistent Model Lab scenario bar to confirm the active forces, regime, and time horizon, copy the scenario, or move among scenario, expectations, time, results, concepts, and evidence. On mobile, its section links scroll horizontally and calibration and evidence stay collapsed until requested.
06 WHAT TO TRUST
Primary evidence supports the direction or mechanism. It does not necessarily estimate this model’s exact sensitivity.
A published estimate or exact, unit-consistent identity informs the modeled range.
The relationship is explicit and reviewable, but its magnitude has not been empirically calibrated.
Knock On is an educational pressure model, not a forecast, valuation opinion, or promise that one outcome will occur.
07 COMMON QUESTIONS
Guided limits the first run to one shock, three contexts, three surprise levels, three horizons, and three leading results. Model Lab exposes the complete system without changing the underlying engine.
Search Education by a term or synonym, or filter by category. Matching technical descriptions open automatically, and each definition has a shareable link.
Relationships depend on expectations, regimes, timing, and competing forces. Open “Why could this be wrong?” to see the most relevant reversal conditions.
The desktop map is a readable overview. The concept library contains all 20 concepts and the relationship inspector exposes their incoming and outgoing connections.
Order 1 is a direct effect of a starting shock. Later orders are effects transmitted through one or more intermediate concepts.
No. Weaker and stronger settings are temporary Model Lab stress tests. They do not alter the version-controlled baseline.
Yes. Copy scenario is available in Guided and Model Lab. The link preserves the regime, time horizon, active shocks, expectations, and any pathway overrides.