KNOCK ON

01 THE ECONOMY, WITH CONSEQUENCES

Mess with
the economy.

Change one thing. See what moves next.
Then change the reason—and watch the answer change.

START SOMETHING
SCROLL TO FOLLOW THE EFFECTS ↓
CHANGE THE REASONSame move.
Different world.
ACTIVE REGIMESoft landing

Policy can cool demand without breaking the system.

02 MODEL OUTPUT · SOFT LANDING

Fed Funds +100 bps

Money gets expensive.

Overnight rates move first. Growth and risk assets feel it later.

Net pressure Competing force
03

WHY?

10Y Treasury
moves up. Usually.

Soft landing changes the balance of forces. Higher expected short rates lift the 10Y while weaker growth pushes back.

PLAUSIBLE RANGE+0.0 pts to +0.3 ptsCONFIDENCEmediumHORIZONDays to months

04 THE MOVING PARTS

Twenty concepts.
One connected system.

Pick any concept to see what it is, why it matters, what moves it, and where the usual story can break.

Rates · regime-dependent

10Y Treasury Yield

The yield investors demand to lend to the US government for ten years.

%
WHAT IT IS

Think of the 10Y as future short rates, expected inflation, and term premium. Each can move differently.

WHY YOU CARE

It anchors mortgages, corporate debt, equity discount rates, and real estate.

THINK OF IT ASThe long view: policy path + inflation + term premium.
TYPICAL RANGE0.5% to 7%
USUALLY MOVES WITH

Growth · Inflation expectations · Term premium

USUALLY AFFECTS

Debt costs · Cap rates · Valuations

WATCH OUT FOR

The 10Y can fall after a hike when recession or future cuts dominate.