01 START WITH ONE QUESTION
What happens
if this changes?
Choose one starting force. We’ll follow its most important effects and show you why the usual story can break.
WHAT CHANGED?Choose another concept ↗
02 ADD THE CONTEXT
Same change.
Different world.
The reason and the prior expectation can matter more than the headline move.
03 MOVE THROUGH TIME
When are
you looking?
Effects appear only after their modeled lag. A missing result may simply not have arrived yet.
04 WHAT MOVES NEXT?
FED POLICY RATE RISES · SOFT LANDING · A FEW MONTHSFollow the
strongest signals.
These are the largest visible pressures at this horizon, not forecasts. Pick one to understand the argument behind it.
STARTING FORCE↑Fed FundsFed Funds +100 bps
→
05 WHY?
Yield Curve
moves down. Usually.
Soft landing changes the balance of forces. A higher 2Y flattens the 10Y-minus-2Y curve.
Why could this be wrong? ＋
↳ The 10Y rises more.
↳ The 2Y rises more.
WANT THE FULL SYSTEM?Go deeper
Go deeper
when you’re ready.
Stack shocks, choose any of 20 concepts, compare all six regimes, inspect every connection, and stress-test the assumptions.